When people start using The Running Algorithm, it takes our machine learning engine about 10 runs to go from knowing nothing about you to being able to prescribe training sessions with really good accuracy. Alongside this, it takes users about 2 weeks to start feeling faster in their runs. We wanted to look into how long it would take a user to improve their 5k by 10% which would mean going from a 30:00 5k down to 27 minutes.
We started by asking our in house running coach, Dr Sophie Mullins, what her instincts tell her as an experienced coach. We then looked into some science, checking out a study. Finally, we asked a user how their sessions have changed over the course of two different time scales in order to, hopefully, answer the question of “How much can I expect to improve using The Running Algorithm?"
A coach’s rule of thumb
This is what our coach, Dr Sophie Mullins, has to say on how much you can improve in a 12 week period…
“Whilst there will be a large degree of variation, a recreational runner moving to a science-backed, structured training program, like The Running Algorithm, can expect to see something in the region of a 5-10% improvement over the first 12 weeks. Some may see improvement in as little as 4 weeks as some physiological changes happen quite rapidly (such as increased plasma volume and improved neuromuscular communication).
This sees a 50-minute 10k time reduced to 45-47 minutes. Or a 60-minute 10k runner lowering their time to the 54-57 minute range.
A more experienced runner already training consistently but without guidance will already have made some progress towards their potential so improvements will be more modest, perhaps in the region of 3-5% over 12 weeks, but that translates as a 40-minute 10k reducing to 38-39 minutes.”
The scientific evidence
In 2017, a study examined 24 recreationally endurance-trained men over a 12-week training period. The runners were split into two groups: one followed a standardised programme of 4–6 sessions per week, while the other had its training adjusted daily according to cumulative training load (this is actually similar to how The Running Algorithm works). The researchers measured VO₂max and running performance using the fastest 1,000 m from a 6 × 1,000 m incremental field test.
After 12 weeks, the runners from both groups showed meaningful improvements despite already being recreationally trained. This is aligned with something that we regularly observe with recreational runners and that is that as soon as they start structured training, they improve at first (and it almost doesn’t matter how good the training is). VO₂max increased by 7% in the individualised group and 5% in the standardised group, while 1,000 m performance improved by approximately 6–8%.
Over the full 24 weeks, improvements reached 7–10% in VO₂max and 9–13% in 1,000 m performance. Importantly, the study found that the individualised training produced similar improvements to the standardised programme, suggesting that recreational runners can make roughly 5–8% improvements in key endurance measures over 12 weeks, although individual responses vary considerably.
This study does suggest that an approach more similar to The Running Algorithm, compared to a static training plan, will yield faster gains and greater improvements over time.
The anecdotal evidence
We’ve helped thousands of runners with various aspects of their training and have dug through the archives to see some changes in performance across interval sessions when these users have been training with The Running Algorithm.
A case study - Strides/Steady Sandwich over 4 weeks
The Strides/Steady Sandwich session is a staple in any TRA training program and it’s a great session for endurance athletes training for everything from 5k to marathon. This user, who was an experienced runner, completed the same session 4 weeks apart and experienced a 12s/km improvement in pace from 4:00/km down to 3:48/km.
This is an increase in pace of exactly 5%, which is on the upper end of the range of what our own coach predicted!
This improvement in pace would suggest that this user has gone from being in 16:30 5k shape down to sub 16 minute shape in just 4 weeks!
If you’re a moderately well trained runner, The Running Algorithm’s own experienced coach, alongside scientific evidence, predicts that it will take you 12 weeks to achieve a 5% improvement in performance. Evidence from our users suggest that improvements of this magnitude can happen even faster.
